Try Hard Week 4 Pre Match Predictions

Welcome to Week 4 bitches!! Gary and Chris are currently sitting top of the pile and it is up to us to knock them off. Gary is fucking around with a Lancer these days just to give us a chance!

I am also going to mention the two Casual matchups I am aware of happening here rather than a separate post.

The mission this week is The Ritual, meaning lots of primary scoring potential and the deployment is Search and Destroy – the closest deployment between two armies. Generally this combination favours melee armies with the more units the better. So let’s see what we have to play with.

Leo V Harry – CSM/Tsons

Fighting to put the other firmly in last place we have two armies packed to the brim with lethality.

I think T1 could be quite savage here – Leo is unlikely to be able to hide ALL his guns so I expect a couple of Doombolts to do some bad things. However Leo has such an absurd amount of dakka that the clap-back could ruin Harry in a turn, if he isn’t careful.

I don’t think the deployment favours either army here and they both have a similar number of units to get creating objectives. Although Leo’s are more durable he can also afford to lose more.

We are all secretly hoping for a Leo league victory so we can burn Pompey to the ground in the ensuing riot. I think this one could be it.

Tsons degrade pretty quickly if they aren’t kept hidden and this is a hard one to play defensive on so I am going to predict a win for Leo here – 70-50. You heard it here first! Sorry Harry.

Chris V Tony – Guard/Necrons

This one has Tony written all over it – way more units that are disposable at creating objectives and being forced to do nothing for a turn. Chris can barely afford one to do that but he could potentially shoot anything off an objective, it creates, immediately. Creating and scoring the primary are two different things so I think it will take some savvy play for Leontus to come out on top.

On the flipside I am not sure there is a ton of Necron units that actually threaten the tanks so it could be a bit of a grind and a low primary score. The Necrons have the advantage on secondaries as well.

This was all largely true in my game vs Chris as well but I contrived to fuck that up pretty hard anyway. If Tony remembers his 3″ DS I reckon that might help as well.

Tony to win 70-40.

Ben V Rob – GK/Admech

This is a pretty interesting one and I don’t really know which way it will go.

Rob and Admech are pretty darn good at screening so I think that will limit how aggressively Ben can teleport. However there is a good chance that Admech fire all their shit at a GK unit and it kills one Terminator, who promptly resurrects immediately.

Getting the Breachers into a position to murder will be a challenge here as well, considering how mobile the Silver Boys are, but if they do then it can put a huge dent in Ben’s forces.

The primary favours Rob here quite nicely – tons of disposable objective holders and creators. But with Crowe teleporting next to them and melting them immediately will he be able to keep them or just be creating points for Ben to score on later?

Really hard to call here but its generally pretty safe to bet against Admech so I will go for Ben win at 80-50.

Sam V Gary – Custodes/CK

The first outing for the reformed Space Janitors against the unbeaten Gary with his hard stat check army. It is doable? Yes. Will I do it? Not even close.

Custodes durability has dropped SIGNIFICANTLY – the gatling cannons now scare me more than the meltas ffs. However the lethality has also increased….1/5 of the time :(.

The mission is great for Gary, very mobile durable boys to fuck off in all directions creating primary and me chasing him down, slowly.

Last time I played Gary I murdered the Lancer handily with a pair of Caladius’ and they are back in business for this match up. They can only really kill 2 doggies a turn, which does not win this match. Winning this match will be using my Venatari well, as they can crunch into anything pretty aggressively – 35 attacks with crits on 5s (go turn) for lethal or sustained, 3AP and lance. Averages about 24 wounds to a Lancer on the charge or two dogs.

All this adds up to the answer that I should be able to meet the stat check but I will definitely fuck this up and blame the new codex. Fuck you Gary.

Casual MATCH UPs

Phil V Ben J – CSM/Ultras

Sticky objectives and Take and Hold – nice and easy one there!

Ben’s Ultramarines are a balanced force (very Codex Astartes) which means they are a solid all-comers army. I imagine the Keeper of Secrets and Forgefiend will be making a return for Phil, both of which are hard to deal with. In some ways that makes it clearer though – deal with those two and the game is probably in the bag, long term, or don’t and you lose.

Phil’s army in punchier and tougher but Ben’s has more OC and flexibility – CSM don’t really have solid objective holders now the Dark Commune and pals have gone the way of the Dodo. At the end of the day points win games (god I am so fucking wise) so I think Ben might edge this. I saw him last week score fuck all for the first two turns, focussing on mass murder instead, but clawed a lot back as the game went on. Calling this a Ben win but its marginal – 60-50.

Brett V Dave – Nids/DG

Playing Supply Drop would suggest having a really durable unit able to hold the line – not something Death Guard have in ample supply right?

Ignoring the almost guaranteed 15VP at the end of the game how does this one go? Based on recent lists we can expect the full Morty bunker and a dakka heavy Tyrannid force. The Morty bunker shreds most of the Nid codex with impunity but 12 Zoanthroapes also fuck up that bunker pretty hard.

The upside of that bunker is its extremely lethal and very resilient, for a multitude of reasons. The downside is that it comes to about 950 points (with Virulence) and if it does get cracked then the DG game largely falls apart.

This could go either way pretty easily and I think if DG get T1 it will go to Dave but if they get T2 I will bet on Brett.